Economy
Commercial RE Timebomb Ticks

Commercial RE Timebomb Ticks

Commercial RE Timebomb TicksWe don’t know if the implosion will occur all at once, but make no mistake, commercial real estate is a disaster, and the ripple effects have not been felt yet. The exception is the the regional bank crisis, and the extraordinary measures...

Bonds Are En Fuego

Bonds Are En Fuego

Bonds Are En FuegoIt could be for a long list of reasons. Here are a couple of the most popularly-held possibilities.The Federal Reserve is going to reverse course and lower interest rates due to slowing economic activity. We will have an important piece of data on...

Market Is Unglued

Market Is Unglued

Market Is UngluedCan it get worse? Certainly. Will it? We don’t have a crystal ball. All we have is what we observe, and it is NOT simply ‘up’ or ‘down.’ Rather it is the combination of inputs that needs to be observed.Again, for the 9,639,411th time: there is no room...

Inflation Ends The Great Resignation

Inflation Ends The Great Resignation

Inflation Ends The Great ResignationThis doesn’t require elaboration.Bottom line: Necessity Inflation is the mother of invention. needing a job to pay for a $6 box of Cheerios and a $6 gallon of gas in CA.

Market Glue Falls Apart All At Once

Market Glue Falls Apart All At Once

Market Glue Falls Apart All At Once I left breadcrumbs for you, the entire time. These can all be found on this newsletter, and now sit on gh2benefits.com. Stronger Dollar Sounds Great, But May Not Be September Is “Suddenly” Nasty Theory Alone Does Not Pay Bills Mr....

Stronger Dollar Sounds Great, But May Not Be

Stronger Dollar Sounds Great, But May Not Be

Stronger Dollar Sounds Great, But May Not BeGreat if you are going on vacation to a foreign country. Food and wine will be cheaper. However, the issue is that the US doesn’t live by itself in global economy. The debt problems that were mentioned during the most recent...

Market Is Unglued

Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?

Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?Confidence and correlations (the glue) matter, the actual downgrade doesn’t. If the US actually defaulted, then candidly speaking, then salt would be the new money. Never say never, but the fact of Fitch downgrading US...

Market Short Means Higher

Market Short Means Higher

Market Short Means HigherTaken from the front of the Willard Hotel where I stayed for the Alliance For Lifetime Income conference. I will have extensive observations and commentary on the conference in the coming days.Washington shenanigans continue, with debt ceiling...