I Watched In Fascination Which Turned Into Horror
A poker pro overestimated his “edge.” That’s okay, it happens, people think X, with overconfidence, even if wrong. To make it much much worse, he limited the restraints required to win.
To his very, very high credit, he realized this and then resigned after only 25% of the showdown was completed. It must’ve been painful to do so, but there was no point in throwing good money after bad. And it would’ve burned through time as well.
In other words, the poker pro went back to the lab, where simulations are run and studied, over and over and over, and realized that getting to the red dot was unlikely. So he adjusted.
In personal finance, this happens all the time. Incorrect oversimplifications are thrown around with reckless abandon, and somehow believe in the oversimplifications.
Except that people don’t adjust.