If the Biden’s Build Back Better Fails
Jae’s Corner isn’t here to adjudicate whether or not Build Back Better should be enacted, it’s here to accurately describe some of the effects.
While the child tax credit gets the headlines, lower health insurance premiums via the Advance Premium Tax Credit may only be extended through the end of 2022.
For those who are nearing Medicare eligibility, this represents a problem. The reason is that sharply lower health insurance premiums could’ve entirely changed retirement timing. Those that wanted to retire before reaching 65 years old could’ve considered a much lower cost for health insurance (with work and planning), and then yes, it would’ve been conceivable.
For those people that do NOT live in Medicaid expansion states, and if the Build Back Better bill fails, then there will be no APTCs at all, to anyone. In those instances, some states do have other assistance programs.
Source: CNN.com (link)
Underwriting Likely Affected Soon
We do not observe prices adjusting, yet. I doubt that lasts. It means that if any insurance carrier asks you medical underwriting, the bar could be raised. Or prices could adjust. The flip side is that there is competition involved, which may keep a lid on those effects in the short run. In the long run however, that is different entirely.
Life insurance premiums are a tie (we can find carriers at exactly the same price for a 30-40 yr old female). Medigap does depend on the location (tie in some locations, $5/month in others). My opinion only: this cannot persist, something will have to give. We do have evidence DEEP in the weeds, imperceptible from everyday people (and most agents).
Source: thehill.com (link)
Santa vs. Everybody (dyor)
This was sent yesterday, prior to the market open (for paid subscribers).
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Santa vs. Everybody (dyor)
“Normally,” we’d expect Santa’s sleigh to be in full flight. Perhaps he has already done his rounds? Very unclear, very choppy, day to day, let’s take 2 steps back.
I have a question: if everyone is this fearful, how is the market only this amount lower?
B. King Dollar
The world doesn’t like Europe, the USD is being used as a safe haven, very very clear.
C. Ten-Year Note
If CPI / PPI are running hot (true, not transitory), why are interest rates not much higher here? Uninteresting to most, but should be of note here:
Inflation should mean interest rates higher
If GDP growth followed interest rates should be higher
BUT, if this doesn’t happen, given the prior bullet points, one might wanna pump the brakes on some underlying assumption.
Dr. Spock ain’t wrong…
Big markets might be saying that fear is warranted. Rhetorically, if that is the case, why aren’t markets way lower than this?
Important: this combination likely resolves soon after Michigan beats Georgia.