Now, Right Now
The reason that I believed in point c, at the end of 2022, is because other huge markets (“Stocks For Show, Bonds For Dough” says the broken record) did not support the idea that equities would notably decline. You can see that at the very end of 2021, German yields were stable, just like the US. Thus, stocks were “safe (ish),” within the idea that it’s never safe.
Seasonality commenced. But you can see that the very far right side of both graphs, interest rates sharply higher, and in Germany, a level we have not seen at any point in over a year. That has now been breached, right away, this year.
For the United States, all eyes at 1.75%. In 2021, when the 10-year note was here, the S&P 500 was about 9-10% lower than where it is today. The actual point is that during March of 2021, the US bond market was alone at those higher levels, but today, it is joined by other huge markets (German bond market). When you add in the information from the prior emails/videos, you get the logical conclusion: that makes it different, and worth watching.
If this continues lower, and bonds do not recover at the same time, this opens the door to possible scenarios that the market has largely ignored. I didn’t say entirely ignored. I am not the only, obviously, to see this.
From Bloomberg.com (link):
Maybe it’s nothing, there is always randomness involved, and the buy-the-dip mentality continues unabated, just sayin’ that important inputs, largely de-emphasized, aren’t exactly the same here.