Panic (At Last)

We enter the top of the sixth inning. I highly suspect that this inning will not be over soon.

Since March (actually since very early last year), it’s been eerie. People’s memories aren’t great, so let’s stick to 2022.

  • The first quarter was easy. People don’t understand the denominator, so higher interest rates pushed risky assets down. Easy.

  • The second quarter was more difficult, because the “happy talk” camp still wants to plant their flag into the ground. Swiss National Bank stopped that, but the citizens of Numeratorville survived.

  • Now: OOPS, the ground under Numeratorville was actually quicksand, it is always quicksand, it was simply there happened to be no moisture in the atmosphere. Now, there is. By the way, now I have summarized the most important book I could suggest to anyone on financial matters, Fooled By Randomness. Y’all know what book is in (distant) second place, right? Surprise: The Signal and the Noise. Then again, if you understood these books, then my book would need to be about 3 pages long and we don’t have well over 1000 clients, so there’s that.