Return To YouTube LIVE
Sunday at 8PM ET. Thankfully, no Cowboys, no Wolverines. Anyways, I am usually cross-eyed by 8PM after endless hours watching the RedZone Channel.
The link to watch is here.
Then again, if we don’t win on Saturday night, my computer will be in the bin, in which case my appearance on YouTube will be impossible in doubt. Heh.
Appearances (online and live)
Medicare deadline December 7, my comments can be viewed here.
2022 scheduling has begun (presuming no COVID variant xxx lockdown)
Nashville TN May 15-18, 2022 (for the professional, high-end wealth management crowd).
Presentations tailored to the bandwidth of the audience: I get to ‘step on the gas’ for this crowd, but other gears certainly exist, there is a reason I use ‘y’all’ in these emails. Here’s a hint: this crowd isn’t going to know much more about Medicare or health insurance than you, you can wager LOTS AND LOTS of money on that.
Back to the point: your organization can send a request for a virtual or in-person presentation.
Not That Fun Month (for you, lotsa fun for me)
And this take into account TODAY, where the S&P500 is +1.6%. These numbers, just a few hours ago, would’ve been uglier.
Past Six Months
S&P and Nasdaq masked global weakness in equities, and the actual macroeconomic outlook (Russell 2000 is the best market-teller of this). This gives you a very good look at how “actual, reasonable, global portfolios are lower than the headlines, which is all that is reported by the media.”
The headlines look like a party, European and international equity markets tell you differently (note that these are USD-denominated returns, which is HUGE difference, something noted in these emails). This isn’t a surprise to consistent followers, the case for international markets needs to include both GDP/Earnings/Jibber-Jabber AND AND AND foreign exchange where the USD is weaker. In a world where there is uncertainty, the USD doesn’t get weaker it gets stronger. Result: foreign market returns are diluted when translated back into USD.
So while the NOMINAL result of Company ZZZ in foreign country #3 may look stronger, the USD-denominated return of Company ZZZ goes DOWN, which has been the case for multiple years now (and certainly the case since COVID-19, USD weakness has been short-lived, the entire time).
Year To Date
Takeaways are that a) international continued underperform through the year, Emerging markets a small disaster, given the rest. Note that this is a gross oversimplification, some shortcuts are required.
Tells you that the first 3 months were “glass is half full, and so is the other half,” with Russell 2000 leading the way, and then faded, a lot, as actual facts filtered in. And then a new variant doused additional fuel on an already-pessimistic fire.
Why is this upside down?
Interest rates move inversely with bond prices, so this graph shows you that bond prices have increased. For me, this tells you: the larger, more important markets, aren’t convinced by today’s move (not financial advice, dyor). Can’t really say the roller coaster ride is over, the big picture is that larger markets have moved into bonds, until that reverses, and the narrative becomes dominated by “tapering,” ongoing gyrations are more likely than not.
Picking tops and bottoms? Sure, in small amounts, and be ready to be very wrong. Even professionals, with full amounts of data, will get it wrong. By full amounts of data, I mean, take a look at this example: click here. This is as good as it gets, and he will tell you, upfront, that the short-term outcome is very uncertain.
For beginners: this is the single most important number in financial markets, period. This is an easy hill to die on.
Bottom line: breadcrumbs have already been provided everywhere, with time and date stamps, ‘cuz I detest Monday Morning Quarterbacking, for paid subscribers.
When You Are Loyal To An Open Enrollment School…
There is no combination of 47 and 25 that results in 100-anything.
Ooooh wait, they could’ve played 16 quarters, in which case the score would’ve been: 188 – 100.
This will end abruptly if we end up 2nd on Saturday….