Yep, Still Out Here Makin’ It Up….
Scroll down, to Feb 23, and this image was sent with my observations on that date.
Well, well, lookee Here
February 27th, this arrived in my inbox (this is a pretty good free newsletter, btw). Maybe, just maybe, I wasn’t inventing the narrative on the 23rd. Since every investor does NOT have enough influence to dictate the price, then all we can do is “watch what the other guys are watching, in the way that they are watching it.”
The Reasoning Not the Actual Topic
Post-Mortem: Poker Pro Threw In The Towel
He realized his projection of his superiority was wrong.
He realized that in order to get where he needed/wanted to go the probability of getting there had declined, a large part of this was his fault, the point of the video. The rules of the contest made it VERY unlikely that he could ultimately win.
He took the logical path. He resigned.
It was 100% the Poker Pro’s fault that he didn’t fully understand the rules. He negotiated the rules with the opponent, who had a proper understanding of the lattice in the image. You need to understand the rules before you start (ahem). The implications may not reveal themselves when the surface is calm, they will almost certainly reveal themselves when the water becomes rough. Crazy people write books about Medicare that is largely summarized by this paragraph, yo.
He didn’t require tons of evidence (they only completed 25% of the contest). However, the structure of the rules inhibited him from catching up, once behind. “Oh #%^#%#, I screwed up, I didn’t realize this, I didn’t know this.” In other words, even professionals in the specific exercise get it wrong.
Key: once this was realized, he had financial backing, and together, they decided to resign. Pride is overrated, we need to change course if we can. We can lose a lot more by sticking to the flawed approach.
The Ultimate Takeaway
The common misnomer is assigning the word “gambling” to “calculated estimate, with a random outcome, within a range of ultimate outcomes, that looks a LOT like the lattice.”
Loose lips assign simple, wrongful definitions in order to understand the complicated.
This is rampant in every walk of life, financial topics is at the very top of that list.
“Insurance is like gambling.” YIKES.
You not understanding this? If you cannot look and identify the sucker at the table, then…guess what? You got it.
Unconvinced? Perhaps you should watch:
MIT 15.S50 Poker Theory and Analysis, IAP 2015 on YouTube