Risk OffReally not tough, took <60 seconds to explain: click here to watch.New observations from this video? None, not one.
Portfolio management
YIKES
YIKESTargeted retirement funds will approach -25% ytd.Right at the beginning, my comment at 1:50. If you have watched this single video, released in April, you’re not shocked.”That said, if anything, I understated it here on my answer, and dramatically so.”12:00 mark,...
Quad Witching Is Here
Quad Witching Is HereQuad Witching is the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. That would be tomorrow (and tomorrow and tomorrow, see what I did there?). It’s the day that the four largest sets of derivative contracts expires, all on the same day. The...
Inflation Expectations Affect The Denominator
Inflation Expectations Affect The DenominatorSee the letter “r”?It’s actually r = r(1) + r(2) + r(3), yes I am taking shortcuts.r(1): real interest rater(2): actual inflationr(3): inflation expectations
Broken Record Time
Broken Record TimeWhat if…You know that everyone MAXIMUM HATES EVERYTHING? Is -18% on a portfolio basis (see prior posts about Vanguard & Blackrock targeted date funds)The stuff that really matters has stabilizedAnd and and…you have paid attention to this lattice,...
Sequence Risk Revisited
Sequence Risk Revisited1/1/2022: You were at 100, you presumed 8% a year, so on 1/1/2024, you projected to be 108 * 1.08 = 116.64.Today: Your 100 will be at about 88 (using BlackRock’s LifePath targeted retirement fund). So to get to 116.64 (your projection) from here...
Back To Targeted Retirement Funds As A Benchmark
Back To Targeted Retirement Funds As A BenchmarkIn prior editions, I have reported a 60/40 base case portfolio, but remember that they were all USD-centric.So 60% SPY & 40% AGG = -6.73%Now look, a non-trivial difference. Note: I am “picking on” Blackrock here...
Insurance Solves Something No Advisor Can
Insurance Solves Something No Advisor CanRead the example above. The way to avoid a possible expense of the 1 unit? Insurance. People wrongly think about what insurance is.“I paid all this money into it, didn’t get anything from it.”Very commonly heard. And wrong. If...
There better not be a fly in this ointment…
There better not be a fly in this ointment…There is a silver lining: there is no chance that I am the only observer of this point stated here. It is simply that people downriver, which include your broker, are so far downstream from this information flow, the “my...