Uncertainty
Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?

Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?

Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?Confidence and correlations (the glue) matter, the actual downgrade doesn’t. If the US actually defaulted, then candidly speaking, then salt would be the new money. Never say never, but the fact of Fitch downgrading US...

What Did You Think Would Happen?

What Did You Think Would Happen?

What Did You Think Would Happen?IF you saw that interest rates were going higher than expectations, then the losses in risky asset markets (NPV) was clear (but always always uncertain, look at the image at the very bottom).. At that time, the rational decision was...

Panic (At Last)

Panic (At Last)

Panic (At Last)We enter the top of the sixth inning. I highly suspect that this inning will not be over soon.Since March (actually since very early last year), it’s been eerie. People’s memories aren’t great, so let’s stick to 2022.The first quarter was easy. People...

Cowboys Win Cowboys Win

Cowboys Win Cowboys Win

Cowboys Win Cowboys WinSo did I…all of $95 (professionals have seen 2 million hands, i.e. you are not winning regularly, so keep the stakes low, like me, $10.50 was the fee lol). 4055 entries, I finished 50th, for $85. LOL.The point of why I do this and stream it?...

Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?

I Did A Boo-Boo

One’s Thing’s For Certain: UncertaintyVIX is implying approximately 70 points of S&P volatility, intra-day. Wednesday, inflation data will be released, which means that the days prior will be full of jitters, headlines, and speculation, in some order.ICYMITwo...

Fitch Downgrades US Debt: Does It Matter?

Withdrawal Can Be Worse Than Addiction

Hate Your Job? Could Be Worse.At least you’re not him. Seriously, I feel bad for the Federal Reserve. Incredible scrutiny, and then you have to stand up there, while global financial markets parse every word, which you know run contrary to almost everything you know....