Nothing here is splitting atoms, personal finance is knowable. It is just that when you are a lifelong citizen of Numeratorville, and the entire structure of financial advisory largely rests on that idea, it’s hard to be convinced that the world isn’t flat.

None of that matters if the distance you need to travel is 300 yards. 30,000 yards however is different, now the actual estimate will be way off due to the curvature of the earth.

Finance is knowable, and all you need to do is put a ‘not’ in these sentences, and you flip the conclusions upside down. And that is exactly what has happened. Volatile? Yes. Easy to understand? Once you get out of Numeratorville, also yes.

This video from August.