Picking Absolute Direction Is Brutally Difficult
If you could do it, even for a short period, then you’re retired already. Actually, the more efficient path would be to play high-stakes baccarat, 1 unit to 64 units in an hour, tops.
Relationships Among Assets, However, Need To Be Observed
This is the graph of the US long bond symbol TLT (ETF in blue) vs QQQ (ETF in purple, of the Nasdaq). Generally, this is known/accepted to be almost exactly related (so if TLT is higher, we would expect QQQ to also be higher). However, over the past two days, this has been notably broken.
It is VERY ODD that global bond yields move by .10% in less than 2 days, it is not odd that equities have been increasingly choppy during that period. To be flat overall, is strange. The relationships here are strange, the radar turns on, and now the questions begin.
This pattern has not been seen for at least 6 months. Possible, uncertain reasons, might include:
a. Foreign Bond Markets. BINGO. All of European government bond markets are much lower in yield, after reaching the 12-month high.
b. Foreign Exchange. Nope, stable.
c. No one cares about bonds: definitely not. But it could be US investors looking at earnings, while enormous global investors are looking at yields. Remember that the bond market is very rarely wrong over time; those investors are far far far bigger in the scheme of global financial markets (your stock-picker broker is not a gnat on the radar).
Now the question becomes: who and why. The tug of war begins, between that European bond buyer(s) and if they are selling other stuff (ie global equities), under the guise of earnings optimism.
We will see, this isn’t combo at a great time, with an earnings deluge about to grab every headline, and the bond market doing this in the “background.” To you, this is the “background,”, but to other larger investors, the earnings news is the background, but this bond yield move is the foreground. You see how different this is than the headlines in the financial press?
MUCH deeper information for paid subscribers because these relationships are the glue upon which ALL portfolios are constructed (global market ETFs, roboadvisors, all twists and variations of this construct, NOT “oooh, I heard that company X has this great new gizmo.”)
Eh, take a second to laugh AT the author:
Actual, GRAMMY-NOMINATED musicians here
(just a couple of days away from changing the thumbnail to GRAMMY WINNING PIANIST). I am gonna call it, so that I can take credit for predicting this.