What I Think Doesn’t Matter At All
But, understand and knowing what the ‘other, bigger guys’ watch? That’s different and useful. And that means watching pictures. Not financial advice, dyor, the obvious.
SPY YTD = -11.16%
AGG (bond market) YTD = -4.04%
You can recall a “base case (overgeneralized)” portfolio of 60% stocks, 40% bonds =
(60% * -11.16%) + (40% * -4.04%) = – 8.312%.
Why This Matters
For those that have a cash “cushion” to survive market ups & downs, it might be ok. That will depend on your financial plan, the way that you have kept money to pay for expenses, foreseen and unforeseen.
The issue here is that the long run is a series of short runs. All timeframes, both long and short, are depicted in this image. The past years have conditioned people to believe that “it’s going to be fine in the long run,” or “buy the dip.” In theory, this isn’t really accurate, as you can see in the picture: the issue is that you are always starting over, with a clean slate, where the arrow points.
In “theory,” you can say to yourself that you are in it for the “long run.” That is 100% fine. However, if you are using the balance of your accounts to pay for current expenses, then you are effectively “selling at the low.” If you face a large unexpected expense, same thing.
Ultimately, planning is important because only then can you tell whether or not you can weather the storm.
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Big Surprise
The No Surprises Act, which took effect on January 1, 2022, is notable progress for consumers, because you will not be randomly assigned an out-of-network bill if you were hospitalized, and you receive a service from an out-of-network provider. However, that means that someone has lost. That means the insurance companies.
The logical way for them to make up the difference? Pay the in-network doctors less. In this case, a lot less: 20% lower payments to in-network doctors.
It doesn’t matter what your job is, no one wants a 20% pay cut for the same work.
One more thing. It’s a little odd that the carrier didn’t think of this, and adjust its 2022 health insurance premiums, but it was likely that the proposed premiums were already submitted before the No Surprises Act passed.
The only logical conclusion? If this 20% reduction actually reflects the financial effect on insurance companies, then higher health insurance premiums would be the logical prediction for 2023.
Here’s the link (click).