Least Surprising Plunge…Ever? It’s Close.

While no one has a crystal ball, sometimes the probability function, usually considered to be symmetric, gets wildly skewed, if you know what combination you are seeking. When combinations becomes that very very very far off what should be expected? Well, you turn on YouTube and start broadcasting live…for 3 hours on stuff. You don’t even bother to shower (explains the visor, pardon moi).

After 2 hours pass, you get to my observations on financial markets. You can click on the image, and it starts there.

The Setup Occurred on Thursday Afternoon

I have receipts, three of them, actually.

That money is now gone so the question is: is your overall setup and forecast of your financial future different?

See my prior entries on the sequence risk etc. Lower tomorrow is almost a slam-dunk certainty (market is closed now), as Google and Microsoft failed to impress anyone. You can ask me why I am now pointing at a company? Reason: their WEIGHTING in the Nasdaq and S&P not the fact that they are 2 companies that fact is irrelevant.

Sequence Risk Revisited

1/1/2022: You were at 100, you presumed 8% a year, so on 1/1/2024, you projected to be 108 * 1.08 = 116.64.

Today: Your 100 will be at about 88 (using BlackRock’s LifePath targeted retirement fund). So to get to 116.64 (your projection) from here (88), by 1/2024, your portfolio has to rise by 32.55% over the next 20 months in order to “get on track” with your projections.

If you have taken this scenario into account, you get my congratulations.